HOW EASILY COULD BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CAUSE DAMAGE?

Biological weapons (or biowarfare agents) have the ability to cause tremendous damage to life. However, we are talking pathogens: biological viruses, spores, etc. They don’t act as we always hope. One of the biggest issues is how they are disbursed.

In addition to how bio-weapons are designed, the method of dispersal affects their potency. A biological weapon released in downtown Minneapolis in the middle of winter won’t be nearly as effective as the same weapon released in South Beach on a crowded day.

Although there are a number of pathogens as well as toxins that can incapacitate and/or kill humans, they are not as effective as biological weapons in wiping out populations. Biologically-altered viruses make good weapons of mass destruction (WMD) due to:

-          their availability or ease of production in strong quantities

-          the ability to quickly, invisibly infect humans

-          the ease of dissemination

-          stability (for the most part, while maintaining virulence) after production, both in storage and in weapons

-          susceptibility of the intended victims

Biological weapons are not perfect, but they are more effective attacking unsuspecting populations than almost any other tactic. I hate to say it, but biological weapons are well suited to terrorist groups who seek “soft” targets (which is why I mention in another article that I suspect we will be hit by a bio weapon sooner rather than later). You don’t have to have sophisticated means or highly-trained operatives invading distant lands. The only good news is large-scale distribution of true biological WMD is more difficult. As I discuss in Keres’ Eyes, viruses degrade over time in nature, due to exposure of radiation and other factors. But they’re still dangerous as hell.

How Do We Protect Ourselves?

The best defense against a biological attack consists of monitoring systems that can detect the presence of toxic and/or infectious biological agents in the environment. These environmental biological detectors must be distributed in the most effective manner, and must be accurate, sensitive, and able to determine when a previously contaminated area becomes safe.

If a biological weapon or agent has been dispersed, the monitoring system must be able to detect its presence in time for people to don protective equipment (that is assuming, of course, that we all have bio-suits handy at all times). This is not only important to prevent initial infection, but to also prevent the spreading of the weapon. See, one of the main dangers with biological weapons is that you would help spread it. Because of the delay that occurs before symptoms appear, the threat of spreading a bio-weapon unwittingly is real.

In the end, the best detection is by combining epidemiological and tactical intelligence strategies. People should be aware of their surroundings at all times, and be diligent in noticing things that are out of place. New aerosol dispenser units, the sudden appearance of a chemical truck, or suspicious cracks or damage to HVAC systems or water lines may be the only indication that a biological attack is in progress. The only way to limit the damage is to act as quickly as possible.

Not to scare you, but a biological warfare agent could be dispersed as simply and inconspicuously as by attaching an off-the-shelf spray device to a car, truck, boat, or airplane. It would appear harmless but it would actually be an attack in progress.

The intelligence strategy should monitor for any unusual illnesses or disease outbreaks. This includes not only current levels, but history of prior outbreaks in a particular area. If an area naturally has outbreaks of a particular kind of disease on a historical basis, then more than likely it’s not an attack and can be addressed accordingly. If not, then an attack is probably underway. The intelligence strategy (including surveillance and historical data mining) should be tailored to the specific area and focused on specific types of diseases. Generic systems in which symptoms are lumped into broad classifications like “respiratory”, “dermatological” or “cardiovascular” are of little help in determining whether there is a biological attack. Early and rapid detection from a comprehensive monitoring system, coupled with correct and detailed screening, is our best chance of surviving an attack.

What To Look For?

As I’ve mentioned in other articles, the main pathogens that would be used in a biological weapon include anthrax, plague, tularemia, smallpox and others. To go into a little more detail about each:

Plague

This ancient disease is a zoonotic infection caused by the Gram-negative Y. pestis and has killed more humans than any other infectious agent in history. It is maintained in nature, mostly in rodents, by fleas. Humans get the disease from animal fleas that have been in contact with infected animals—or from other humans through aerosol or direct contact with infected secretions (which is why it has killed so many of us over the centuries).

In a biological warfare scenario, plague would be spread via aerosol delivery, then would be spread from person to person naturally. Bubonic plague is the most common naturally-occurring form and triggers painful lymphadenopathy and severe constitutional symptoms of chills, fever, and headache. Septicemic plague is less common and hard to diagnose.

If instead of using an aerosol release, an enemy released fleas infected with Y. pestis for some strange reason (which I’m sure would be a nightmare trying to contain and transport), victims would present with classic bubonic plague—and the local mammal population would start dying off as well. Not very pleasant, is it?

Anthrax (B. anthracis)

This pathogen is actually a spore that exists in the soil, is worldwide, and has haunted mankind for eons. The Bible may even be referring to anthrax when it talks about a couple of the plagues in Exodes. The spore originates from domestic animals. It is not clear why it continues to appear in the soil, but infection is incurred by direct contact with, ingestion of, or contact with infected creatures that feed on decaying animals (flies, vultures, etc., although I’m not sure why anyone is screwing around with vultures, flies, maggots, etc.).

In humans, anthrax is associated with exposure to infected animals (either through agriculture, horticulture or industrial activity) or contaminated animal products. The good news is that the incidents of human-related anthrax has declined from about 127 cases/year to about one/year over the past century. Over 95% of anthrax cases are cutaneous, and the incubation period is 1 – 5 days. Infected people have a severe sore throat or local tonsillar ulcer, usually  associated with fever, toxicity, and the swelling of the neck. Dysphagia and respiratory distress may also be a result. GI anthrax triggers nausea, vomiting and fever, usually followed by severe abdominal pain. (GI anthrax is difficult to diagnose because it is rare and the symptoms are similar to so many other causes). The mortality rate for both types of anthrax may be as high as 50%.

Inhalational anthrax, however, is more deadly. After a 1 – 6 day incubation period, symptoms of malaise, myalgia, fatigue, fever, cough and mild chest discomfort appear. These persist for 2 – 3 days, then is followed by respiratory distress with dyspnea, stridor, cyanosis, increased chest pain, diaphoresis, and edema of the chest and neck. Chest scans usually reflect the widening of the mediastinum, frequently with pleural effusions. If treated early, the mortality rate may be less than 20 – 30%. However, if untreated after 4 – 5 days of symptoms developing, the mortality rate is close to 100%.

Smallpox

While smallpox has been eradicated, that just means it will no longer occur naturally. The threat of it as a weapon is real as a number of militaries have samples. Smallpox is a weapon of choice as it can be spread via aerosol delivery very effectively, it can be produced on a large scale easily, and fewer and fewer people have any kind of exposure or natural protection from the disease. Not only that, it is highly contagious; secondary spread constitutes a hazard from the time at which enanthem occurs in a victim until the scabs have separated.

The incubation period is 7 – 17 days. It is very quickly diagnosed, however, due to the synchronous eruption of rash over the whole body (although the early stages of the rash could be mistaken from varicella). Along with a rash, victims will have a high fever, myalgia, abdominal pain, and delirium. Respiratory and body fluid isolation is critical to avoid spreading the disease.

Tularemia

This is a zoonotic disease caused by the Gram-negative F. tularensis, a facultative intracellular bacterium. It is highly infectious via aerosol and cutaneous events, but transmission from person to person has not been seen. This can be helpful in preventing your own people from getting infected by your own weapon, but it also limits the damage it can have on your targets. It’s nasty how it’s obtained: through contact with or ingestion of water contaminated by the feces of infected rodents. Yes, you read that correctly.

The disease is characterized by fever, cough, localized skin or mucous membrane ulcerations, regional lymphadenopathy, and possibly pneumonia. Untreated victims could suffer a prolonged illness characterized by malaise, weight loss, weakness, etc. for many months. They could also die. Mortality rates are 4 – 35%. Treatment reduces that rate to 1 – 2.5%.

Q Fever

A zoonotic disease called Q Fever, which is caused by the rickettsia-like organism C. burnetii, is dangerous as it is exceptionally infective. It is transmitted mainly via inhalation of infected aerosols, and a single organism can cause infection in a human. The disease is found across the globe, primarily in livestock: goats, sheep, and cattle. Contact with these animals pose high risk, because the organism count is very high. It is very resistant to pressure and desiccation, and it may persist in a spore-like stasis for months after the source leaves.

So Are We In Danger?

Yes and no. Although it’s both technically difficult, highly illegal, and extremely expensive to create biological weapons on a large scale basis, terrorists are a serious threat as bio-weapons could be used on a smaller scale. Unfortunately, samples of pathogens that could be turned into weapons are relatively easy to obtain, and the techniques used to create small quantities are not difficult. Delivery systems could also be easy to procure and/or manufacture, and people generally don’t know what to look for until it’s too late.

The effects of a small-scale biological attack could be devastating. We must have a strong plan in place in the likelihood of an attack.